A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
