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Increasing concerns are present about the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the intention to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to brief comments on social media from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Region

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two signed a statement that the conflict was over – a move that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

However relations have later worsened once more.